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China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.